The decision of Donald trump to withdraw from Eastern Syria 2 thousand American military, that is the whole contingent, prompted Russia, Turkey and Syria to fight for influence, writes Tyzhden.
This move has significantly altered the balance of power in the region: lost primarily Kurds and the West. So, the President of the United States gave Moscow will become the dominant power in the middle East? Does this mean that the Americans are retreating from the troubled regions in the world and begin an isolationist policy?
The first victim of a decision which trump announced last month, was the Minister of defense of the United States Jim Mattis that, shaken by this, according to him, a rash step, resigned. Soon resigned Brett Mcgurk, US special envoy in the international coalition against “Islamic state” (DAASH), jeopardizing the attempts of the West to stop Islamist extremism and to promote a peaceful settlement of the civil war in Syria. Subsequently, trump said that the United States may slightly delay the withdrawal of troops. And no one doubts that he is serious to the soldiers back home and convinced that the United States does not have interests in the region, where over the last 20 years has killed thousands of Americans.
When American troops would be withdrawn from Syria soon can quietly leave and a few British and French division of the coalition that defeated the militants of “ISIS” in area of hostilities and put an end to the so-called Islamic Caliphate. Britain has said it will not abandon its obligations to the Kurdish allies in the future will prevent the regrouping of the defeated fighters. And London is aware that a small British unit, part of the American contingent, cannot hold the Fort or repel the attack of the Turkish Democratic forces of Syria, mainly consisting of Kurdish people’s protection units. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that these groups are connected with the Turkish separatist Kurdistan workers ‘ party, and promises to clear them from the southern border of Turkey.
A few days after the Declaration of the trump Turkey sent tanks surrounded Manbij is a strategic town in Northern Syria, where the base of American troops. While there were Americans, Turkey did not dare to attack the troops of self — defense- close allies of the United States. Armed by the United States the Kurds have been a significant force in the fight against “Islamic state”. Now they believe that Washington has betrayed them, therefore, urgently appealed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to protect them from the Turkish threat. Therefore, the Syrian troops for the first time in six years, is located in the suburbs Manuja.
It seems that the conflict in Syria comes to an end. In the hands of the dictator Assad would be almost his whole country, and Russian and Iranian allies will strengthen the position and will actively help him deal with the other opponents. Turkey, which now is not afraid of confrontation with the United States, its NATO ally, determined to strike at the Kurdish self-defense units. Russia, which has not worried that its air strikes will be the responsibility of the American fighters in the region, is free to support the Assad regime in the sweep of the last refuge of the Syrian rebels (that is, neutral enclave in Northwest Syria near the Turkish border, where rebels pushed).
Turkey has faced the choice. On the one hand, Erdogan has the military strength and willingness to “clean up” its border from Kurdish “terrorists” — it will be a useful political move to raise the popularity on the eve of scheduled for March local elections. On the other-stepping on Manbij, it risks a direct clash with the Assad regime. As one of the three organizers of the Syrian peace talks in the capital of Kazakhstan Astana, Kazakhstan (together with Russia and Iran), he will be afraid of confrontation with the Syrian army and its Russian allies. But the Turks don’t have to worry about anti-Americans in response to such a step: in the civil war in Syria trump has washed his hands.
So it is advantageous to divide the spoils of the Turkish delegation flew to Moscow to discuss the proposal of the Russians for the joint mediation between the Syrian government and the Kurds of the North-East. Most likely, the Kurds will run from the southern border of Turkey.
In such circumstances, the immediate threat is that the released militants “LIH”, which the Kurdish self-defense captured and are currently in prison. Without their Kurdish oppressors, no one will keep behind bars. Islamist militants pulled back to their villages and begin to weave a conspiracy about a new assault for the restoration of the former Caliphate or, more likely, will regroup in a clandestine terrorist organization. They will climb to the West, whence came most of the militants to organize terrorist attacks in Europe and the middle East.
The Russians now have what I wanted. President Bashar al-Assad has regained full power. This is one by one began to recognize its Arab neighbors that return to Damascus ambassadors and are preparing to restore normal diplomatic relations. Moscow no longer sees threats to its vital naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean sea or any obstacles to the Assad Alliance with Russia. The Syrian leader is entirely dependent on the support of the Russians and their weapons, as other countries and leaders in the middle East recognize the main role of Moscow in the region.
Iran also will not need to worry about pressure from the international community, which demands to withdraw forces from Syria. Though the Iranians would prefer to see power returned to the soldiers home and spent huge sums to support the Assad regime. It turns out that trump’s decision not emphasized isolation of Iran, but rather played into the hands of Iran.
After the Syrian-Iraqi border will be left unprotected in an international army (mostly composed of Americans), almost the entire control of Syria passed into the hands of Assad. Then the West will have no impact on local political processes, and to limit Iranian influence in the country.
Announcing its intention to withdraw its troops from Syria, trump showed that for Americans made: with the “Islamic state” is gone, so for US it makes no sense to spend money on further surgery. However, “ISIS” is still not finished, and it is well-known Europeans and Arab countries. The terrorist organization is just hiding underground. However, the West left little options. Last week, British foreign Minister Jeremy hunt admitted that in the near future Assad will likely remain in power. In fact, he said that the UK has abandoned attempts to remove the Syrian ruler. The same decisions in the style of Realpolitik is likely to take in Paris and other EU capitals. Europeans can now think about participation in large-scale reconstruction of the country, which Assad turned into ruins. And also hope that the refugees who did not want to live in sadska-Russian regime, slowly they return home.
The West can never hope to breathe new life into the lethargic peace talks in Geneva. Now, however, Assad has all the cards in hand and not interested in compromise. In any case, negotiations are underway in Astana, and they actually will help to ratify the victory of the Syrian leader. It seems that a peaceful settlement one way or another happen in the Russian and Iranian conditions. Really, reporting on the withdrawal of troops, trump had such intentions?
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